Abstract Human activity has prompted a rapid decline in the forested areas of the Amazon, resulting in an increase in the number of isolated forest fragments. Belém is the smallest and most deforested area of endemism in the biome. Its high level of degradation translates into great biodiversity vulnerability and the need for urgent measures to address these changes. The aim of this research was to analyze connectivity among the Belém’s remaining forest fragments and to classify them according to their importance for population dispersal. We used morphological spatial pattern analysis to characterize landscape structure and the integral index of connectivity to defi ne the importance of forest fragments. From a structural perspective, 55.28% of the forested area was classifi ed as core, 16.88% as edge. From a functional perspective, few fragments were classifi ed as highly important. In general, larger fragments were more important for connectivity. The protected areas seem to not have considered the forest connectivity in their planning, although the designation of priority areas has valued this variable. This study provides an important theoretical outline for considering connectivity in the planning phase and represents a contribution to more detailed research on how to maintain biodiversity in the Belém Area of Endemism.

ABSTRACT In the face of climate change threats, governments are drawing attention to policies for mitigating its effects on biodiversity. However, the lack of distribution data makes predictions at species level a difficult task, mainly in regions of higher biodiversity. To overcome this problem, we use native landcover as a surrogate biodiversity, because it can represent specialized habitat for species, and investigate the effects of future climate change on Brazilian biomes. We characterize the climatic niches of native landcover and use ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Our results highlight expansion of the distribution of open vegetation and the contraction of closed forests. Drier Brazilian biomes, like Caatinga and Cerrado, are predicted to expand their distributions, being the most resistant to climate change impacts. However, these would also be affected by losses of their closed forest enclaves and their habitat-specific or endemic species. Replacement by open vegetation and overall reductions are a considerable risk for closed forest, threatening Amazon and Atlantic forest biomes. Here, we evidence the impacts of climate change on Brazilian biomes, and draw attention to the necessity for management and attenuation plans to guarantee the future of Brazilian biodiversity.